Bitcoin Halving Event and Long-Term Holders
With the next Bitcoin halving event less than five months away, long-term BTC holders have remained bullish, refusing to let go of their assets. According to a weekly report from on-chain market intelligence platform Glassnode, several measures of Bitcoin supply, such as HODLed, long-term holder, and illiquid, are at historical highs, with the crypto asset being held at “extremely tight” levels.
Investors Are HODLing BTC at Tight Levels
Glassnode noted that the relative proportion of circulating supply held for over a year currently hovers at all-time highs for several age bands despite investor sentiment around the impressive price performance of crypto assets year-to-date and excitement for the upcoming halving event. The market intelligence platform found that over 68% of BTC supply was last active a year ago. In addition, 57.1% of the supply was last active two years ago, while 41.1% and 29.6% were last on the move three and five years ago.
“A powerful divergence continues to form between Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply, which is just shy of an all-time high, and Short-Term Holder (STH) supply which is at effectively all-time-lows. This insightful dynamic demonstrates a growing tightness within the BTC supply, as existing holders become increasingly unwilling to part with their holdings,” Glassnode stated.
Exploring On-Chain Supply Metrics
To substantiate its findings, Glassnode explored several on-chain supply metrics like the illiquid supply and the HODLer Net Position Change metric. The illiquid supply metric measures the amount of BTC stored in wallets with a small spending history. Illiquid supply changes usually move together with withdrawals from exchanges. As the metric is at an all-time high of 15.4 million BTC, it suggests that investors have continued to withdraw their funds and move them to custody. This is shown in the monthly rate change of illiquid supply, which is rising by over 71,000 BTC.
Glassnode discovered a similar pattern with the HODLer Net Position Change metric, which measures the aggregate maturation of BTC supply as market players continue to accumulate and keep their assets. Taking the ratio of the HODLer Net Position Change metric between long and short-term holder supply would indicate a discrepancy between dormant and mobile supply as the metric has seen sustained inflows since June 2021 and reached new highs since July 2023.
Hot Take: Long-Term Holders Remain Bullish Ahead of Bitcoin Halving Event
Long-term Bitcoin holders are showing remarkable resilience and bullish sentiment as they continue to hold onto their assets despite excitement surrounding the upcoming halving event. Glassnode’s report reveals that various measures of Bitcoin supply are at historical highs, indicating a significant tightness in the market. This suggests that existing holders are increasingly unwilling to part with their holdings in anticipation of potential future gains.
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