Bucking Conventional Wisdom: Bitcoin and Interest Rates
In a recent blog post, macro-analyst Arthur Hayes challenges the traditional belief that Bitcoin’s value is affected by interest rates. Hayes argues that the massive amount of debt carried by the U.S. government will render conventional economic logic ineffective. Despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to raise interest rates to combat inflation, Hayes believes that inflation may persist due to nominal GDP growth surpassing government bond yields. He points to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast, which estimates a staggering 9.4% growth in nominal Q3 GDP compared to a 5% 2-year US Treasury yield. Hayes asserts that as the economy continues to outpace the government’s debt payments, bondholders may turn to riskier assets like Bitcoin for higher yields.