Bitcoin ETFs Expected to Impact Capital Flows, Not Price
According to VanEck advisor Gabor Gurbacs, the launch of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will have a significant impact on capital flows into the cryptocurrency sector but will not greatly affect the price of BTC. Gurbacs believes that initial net inflows may only amount to about $100 million, mostly from large institutional investors.
Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory Following ETF Approval
If a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved in the US, Bitcoin’s price trajectory may follow a similar path to gold, but at a faster pace due to its limited supply and scarcity-increasing events like halvings. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has set the filing deadline for updated ETF applications to December 29, 2023. Failure to meet this deadline means losing the opportunity for SEC approval in early January.
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Predicted Launch and Trading Timeline
Matrixport platform analysts predict that the spot Bitcoin ETF will likely be launched in January 2024. It is expected that the SEC will allow trading of these ETFs until January next year, with actual trading potentially starting in February or March.
Hot Take: Bitcoin ETFs and Beyond
Gabor Gurbacs believes that Bitcoin is pushing its own capital markets systems and products beyond just ETFs, which is not yet priced into the market. He states that it’s not about what BlackRock adopts, but rather which Bitcoin company becomes the next BlackRock.
