Crypto Insights: Macro Mondays
In this week’s episode of Macro Mondays, we dive into the US CPI, Bitcoin, and China’s policy plans with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold. Despite Andreas being out of the office, Mikkel leads a compelling discussion on the current macro landscape. They agree to steer clear of the Biden vs. Trump narrative for now, as it has minimal impact on investor portfolios. The focus is on short-term, actionable insights, with a keen eye on the global macro environment.
Gung-Ho Summer: US CPI & Market Reactions
- The US CPI report was a soft print, leading to initial positive market reactions.
- Despite easing inflation and increasing liquidity, markets saw unexpected negativity.
- The global outlook points towards a gung-ho summer, with potential growth slowdowns.
- The Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut in September is a key factor to watch.
Container Chaos: Impact on Asian Shipping
- Recent storms causing disruptions in the sea routes around the Cape of Good Hope.
- Container ships facing traffic jams and delays, impacting global shipping rates.
- Delayed effects on consumer prices in Europe and the US anticipated in the second half of the year.
- Economic implications of shipping disruptions on Asian economies and global trade.
Crosscurrents in Asian FX and Precious Metals
- Observations on the recent intervention in the USD vs. JPY FX market.
- The evolving trend in Asian currencies against the US dollar.
- Strategic insights on trading opportunities in silver, copper, and consumer discretionary sectors.
- The potential impact of Asian currencies and precious metals on global market dynamics.
Chinese Policy Plum: Long-Term Strategies
- Analysis of China’s upcoming policy conference and potential reforms.
- Considerations on Chinese economic indicators, including air pollution and export trends.
- Long-term focus on building a robust middle class and consumer market in China.
- Insights on how global economic trends and China’s policy shifts may shape market developments.
Portfolio Strategy: Actionable Insights
- Trade recommendations adjusted based on current market trends and economic outlook.
- Short positions on silver and copper, long positions in consumer discretionary sectors.
- Currency strategies focused on Asian FX markets and USD exchange rates.
- Transparency in trade recommendations and caution on short-term market fluctuations.
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