Traders Predict 90% Chance of SEC Approving Bitcoin ETFs
Traders on the Polymarket platform are betting heavily on a 90% chance of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot Bitcoin ETFs by mid-January. The remaining 10% of traders are hedging against the possibility of a delay beyond January 15. The “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15” contract on Polymarket is trading at 90 cents, indicating high market sentiment towards an imminent decision from the SEC.
High Bets on Approval
The contract has attracted $441,315 worth of bets in favor of approval, while only a minority has chosen the option of rejection. However, those who selected rejection are using it as a hedge to profit if the SEC does indeed delay its decision beyond January 15.
“I donβt doubt the inevitability of a Bitcoin ETF, I doubt the SECβs ability to work fast enough to say yes by Jan. 15.” – Polymarket trader
Unlikely Approvals by Jan. 3
Reuters reported that the SEC may announce approvals for 14 issuers to list their Bitcoin ETF products as early as January 3. However, Fox journalist Eleanor Terrett believes this is highly unlikely due to ongoing reviews of updated S-1 filings from firms like Hashdex and VanEck.
Potential Outcome on Jan. 10
Although the exact timing of the SEC’s decision is unknown, experts and crypto proponents speculate that January 10 could be a possible outcome. This coincides with the deadline for a joint submission by ARK 21Shares. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood also anticipates a decision by this date, believing that an approval would bring Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies into the mainstream through Wall Street.
Hot Take: Implications of SEC Approval
The potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC holds significant implications for the cryptocurrency market. It would provide a regulated and accessible investment vehicle for institutional investors and further validate the legitimacy of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. If approved, it could lead to increased adoption, liquidity, and price appreciation for Bitcoin, potentially attracting more investors to the market. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the SEC’s decision timeline, it remains crucial for traders and investors to stay informed and monitor developments closely.
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