An Intriguing Theory on Bitcoin Halving Market Cycles
In a fascinating theory proposed by technical analyst “CryptoCon,” he suggests that Bitcoin halving market cycles can be predicted based on the date of the first two halvings, which occurred on November 28, 2012, and July 9, 2016. According to CryptoCon, these cycles can be divided into accumulation, fair value and preparation establishment, bull market and new peak, and bear market phases.
By analyzing the historical data, CryptoCon notes that each cycle has pivoted around 21 days before or after November 28, marking the bottom. Based on this pattern, he predicts that Bitcoin will reach its next early top 21 days before or after July 9, 2024, and the next cycle top will occur 21 days before or after November 28, 2025.
It’s important to note that there are alternative theories suggesting that Bitcoin market cycles are not directly influenced by halvings. One industry observer, “Pledditor,” believes that these cycles are merely coincidences and are more closely correlated with changes in the global M2 money supply.
While both theories have their merits, it is intriguing to explore the potential relationship between Bitcoin halvings and market cycles.
Exploring the Alternative Halving Cycle Theories
According to CryptoCon’s theory, each Bitcoin halving cycle can be divided into distinct phases: accumulation, fair value and preparation establishment, bull market and new peak, and bear market. Observing historical data, CryptoCon finds that each cycle has revolved around 21 days before or after November 28, indicating a potential bottom.
Using this analysis, CryptoCon predicts that the next early top will occur 21 days before or after July 9, 2024, while the next cycle top will be 21 days before or after November 28, 2025.
However, it’s important to consider alternative theories. One such theory suggests that Bitcoin market cycles are not primarily influenced by halvings. According to industry observer “Pledditor,” these cycles are more closely tied to changes in the global M2 money supply.
They argue that recent “4-year cycles” in the M2 money supply have been reflected in various risk assets, including Bitcoin.
The Impact of Global M2 Money Supply on BTC Market Cycles
While CryptoCon’s theory suggests a strong correlation between Bitcoin halvings and market cycles, an alternative viewpoint focuses on the global M2 money supply. This broad measure encompasses cash, currency, and bank and money market mutual fund deposits.
According to “Pledditor,” recent “4-year cycles” in the M2 money supply have coincided with market cycles in various assets, including Bitcoin. This suggests that market cycles may be influenced by changes in the global money supply rather than halvings alone.
Considering this alternative perspective, it becomes clear that multiple factors may contribute to Bitcoin’s market cycles. It is essential to analyze both theories to gain a comprehensive understanding of this complex phenomenon.
Hot Take: The Intricacies of Bitcoin Market Cycles
Bitcoin market cycles are a captivating aspect of the cryptocurrency world. While CryptoCon’s theory proposes a strong connection between halvings and cycles, the alternative viewpoint emphasizes the role of the global M2 money supply.
As an investor or enthusiast, it is crucial to explore these theories and consider multiple factors when predicting Bitcoin’s future price movements. By staying informed and open-minded, you can navigate the intricacies of Bitcoin’s market cycles and make well-informed decisions.
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