Spot Ethereum ETF Approval: 45% Likelihood on Polymarket
Data sourced from Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, indicates that the current chance of spot Ethereum ETF approval stands at 45%. This figure suggests a stagnation in progress since the previous month’s assessment of the proposed ETF offering. In March, various Polymarket participants wagered against the approval of an Ethereum ETF by May 31, resulting in a split sentiment that pegged the odds at 45%.
- No progress in approval likelihood since last month
- March bets against approval by May 31
- Before Bitcoin ETF approval, Ethereum ETF enthusiasm was at 80%
- Recent SEC actions dampened approval hopes
Diminishing Confidence in Spot Ethereum ETF Approval
Unlike the initial optimism surrounding the possibility of the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF, recent developments and actions have caused a decline in confidence among experts and enthusiasts. The SEC’s efforts to categorize the underlying cryptocurrency of the proposed ETF as securities have significantly impacted the likelihood of approval.
- Previous faith in Ethereum ETF approval wanes
- Optimism stemming from Bitcoin ETF approval
- SEC’s recent actions erode belief in Ethereum ETF approval
SEC Investigation Impacts Ethereum Foundation and ETF Prospects
The SEC recently subpoenaed several US companies in their quest to classify Ethereum as securities, specifically targeting their dealings with the Ethereum Foundation. This move had a detrimental effect on spot Ethereum ETF sentiment. Some applicants for the offering have made adjustments to their filings and are currently awaiting the SEC’s decision.
- Subpoenas issued to US firms regarding Ethereum Foundation
- Negative impact on spot Ethereum ETF prospects
- Public comment period initiated for proposed spot Ethereum ETFs
- Fidelity Ethereum Fund, Bitwise Ethereum Fund, Grayscale Ethereum Trust under scrutiny
SEC Seeks Feedback on Proposed Spot Ethereum ETFs
Currently, the SEC has opened a public comment period for various proposed spot Ethereum ETFs, including the Fidelity Ethereum Fund, Bitwise Ethereum Fund, and Grayscale Ethereum Trust. While this move indicates continued scrutiny of these financial products, it has not resulted in any notable improvements in the approval odds.
- Three-week deadline for public feedback on proposed ETFs
- SEC remains engaged in evaluating new financial products
Hot Take: Spot Ethereum ETF Approval Speculation and SEC’s Stance
It doesn’t look too promising for spot Ethereum ETFs as the odds of receiving approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on or before May 31 have not improved based on market observer’s take.
Sources:
– [Polymarket](#)
– [SEC Subpoenas](#)
– [SEC Public Comments](#)
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