What to Expect from Bitcoin in July 2024: An Analysis
In a video released on June 22, prominent crypto analyst and Trader Eric Crown shared insights on what Bitcoin holders can expect in July 2024.
Historical Trends and Probabilities for Bitcoin in July
- July historically has been a positive month for Bitcoin, with a 64% probability of a positive close in the last fourteen years.
- Positive closing months in July have seen an average return of 19%, while negative closing months had an average loss of 9%.
- If Bitcoin consolidates, a range between $60,000 and $70,000 is likely, with an upside probability if it remains above the May lows.
June vs. July Comparison and Altcoin Behavior
- June had minimal price movement, suggesting a slow down for the summer and an extended consolidation period.
- There is heightened sentiment in the market, with extreme bullishness on upside moves and bearishness on downside moves.
- Altcoins show significant volatility and react strongly to minor price movements of Bitcoin, influencing market sentiment.
Bitcoin Forecast and Trading Strategies
- Bitcoin is likely to close June around $65,000 within the consolidation range, with Saturdays historically being low volatility days.
- The CME’s weekly closure showed Bitcoin slightly above the median, keeping short-term bullish hopes alive.
- Analyze Bitcoin’s daily setup using quantitative methods, with a strike rate of 52% and potential short-term scalp opportunities based on Monday’s open.
Potential Scenarios and Market Outlook
- If Bitcoin fails to hold the $63,900 level, it could drop to $61,000-$62,000, a critical area for maintaining bullish hopes.
- A higher low may take time to establish, potentially extending through July and into August, setting up for a Q4 breakout.
Hot Take: Stay Alert and Patient
As the market remains in a consolidation phase, significant movements are unlikely in the immediate term. Stay alert, monitor key levels, and be patient as Bitcoin navigates the coming months for potential trading opportunities.
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