Analysis of the SEC’s Impact on Bitcoin
In a recent video, Crypto Jebb discussed the potential impact of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting current applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs. His analysis focused on the influence of SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s stance on Bitcoin’s price.
Jebb pointed out that the SEC’s decision could significantly affect the price of Bitcoin, which might drop from around $37,000 to as low as $8,000. He attributed Bitcoin’s recent price surge to speculation about ETF approvals, as its price had risen from $25,000 to over $35,000.
The Gensler Dilemma
Jebb highlighted the importance of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application and warned that its rejection could lead to a market crash just before the anticipated Bitcoin halving in April. He introduced the “Gensler Dilemma,” referring to Gensler’s cautious approach to approving products that might lead to market manipulation or significant losses for investors.
Impact of Approving a Spot Bitcoin ETF
If at least one spot Bitcoin ETF is approved in the U.S., Jebb expects a different future for Bitcoin based on his previous analysis. He had predicted that it could surpass $70,000 by next year due to BlackRock’s initiatives and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies.
Jebb revisited the 2020-2021 bull market, attributing its momentum to pandemic-related stimulus checks and low-interest rates. He also discussed BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s evolving perspective on Bitcoin and believes this shift will make it more accessible to Americans and their financial advisors.
The Role of Federal Reserve Policies
Jebb emphasized that Federal Reserve policies have been crucial in Bitcoin’s past performance and will continue to influence it. He anticipates a possible reintroduction of quantitative easing and a reduction in interest rates, which he argues would act as catalysts for Bitcoin’s growth.
Hot Take: The Future of Bitcoin
If spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved in the U.S., Jebb predicts a significant rally in Bitcoin’s price and an influx of capital into the cryptocurrency market. However, if they are rejected, he fears it could lead to a market crash.
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