Probability of Ethereum ETF Approval by May 23rd Stands at 60%, Otherwise Anticipated in 2025

Spot Ethereum ETF: A 60% Chance of Approval

According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart, there is a 60% likelihood of spot Ethereum ETFs receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in May. However, recent delays in decisions on potential ether ETFs from BlackRock and Grayscale have impacted the outcomes. Other contenders like Ark 21Shares and VanEck are also awaiting regulatory decisions.

May 23 is a crucial date in the spot ether narrative, as it marks the conclusion of the 240-day window for the SEC to make decisions on proposals from Ark/21Shares and VanEck. Seyffart believes that there is a possibility of approval, but also acknowledges that the SEC may choose to delay or deny the process.

If the spot Ethereum ETF doesn’t get approved in May, Seyffart predicts it may happen next year in 2025.

Long-Term Guarantee for ETF Approval

Scott Johnsson, a general partner at Van Buren Capital, shares his perspective on the potential roadmap for an ETH ETF. He believes that while there are current nuances, the approval of an ETH spot ETF is highly likely in the long term.

Scrutiny and Precedent for Spot Ethereum ETFs

Seyffart suggests that the SEC might scrutinize spot ether ETFs due to concerns about the size, liquidity, and impact of the futures market. However, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce emphasizes applying precedent to spot Ethereum ETF decisions rather than requiring a court decision to recognize their arbitrary nature.

Hot Take: The Future of Spot Ethereum ETFs

The approval of spot Ethereum ETFs by the SEC remains uncertain but promising. While there is a 60% chance of approval in May, delays and scrutiny from the SEC could affect the outcome. However, analysts and experts believe that in the long term, an ETH spot ETF is highly likely to be approved. The presence of ether futures ETFs and the application of precedent could play a crucial role in securing approval. Crypto investors and enthusiasts eagerly await the decision on May 23 and the future of spot Ethereum ETFs.