A Potential Bullish Crossover for Bitcoin Realized Prices
An analyst suggests that a rare bullish crossover could be on the horizon for Bitcoin. This crossover is based on the realized price of the cryptocurrency, which tracks the average acquisition price of Bitcoin investors. By analyzing the on-chain history of each coin in circulation, the realized price determines the average cost basis of all coins.
When Bitcoin’s price falls below this metric, it indicates that investors are at a loss. Conversely, when the price exceeds the realized price, it signifies overall market profitability.
Focusing on Two UTXO Age Bands
For this particular analysis, attention is given to two specific UTXO age bands: 6 to 12 months and 12 to 18 months. These age bands represent coins that were last moved within their respective time ranges.
Historically, a bullish crossover occurs when the 6 to 12 months band surpasses the 12 to 18 months cohort. Such crossovers have only happened four times in Bitcoin’s history, making this potential fifth crossover significant. According to the analyst, November 28, 2023, is the expected date for this bullish crossover.
Bitcoin Price Movement
While Bitcoin briefly approached $29,000 recently, it has since retraced back to around $28,400.
Hot Take: Potential Bullish Crossover Anticipated for Bitcoin Realized Prices
An analyst predicts that Bitcoin may experience a rare bullish crossover based on the realized prices of two UTXO age bands. The realized price metric determines the average acquisition price of Bitcoin investors and indicates whether the market is profitable or experiencing losses. By comparing the 6 to 12 months band with the 12 to 18 months cohort, a bullish crossover could occur, which has only happened four times in Bitcoin’s history. The analyst expects this potential fifth crossover to take place on November 28, 2023. However, Bitcoin’s price has recently retraced from its push towards $29,000.
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