Odds of Spot Bitcoin ETF Rejection
The chances of the spot Bitcoin ETF being rejected by the SEC have decreased from 10% to just 5%, according to Bloomberg’s top ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas. Balchunas believes that there is still a small possibility of rejection due to uncertainties in the industry, but overall, the odds are in favor of approval.
This statement was made in response to another analyst, James Seyffart, who outlined three potential outcomes if the SEC were to deny a spot Bitcoin ETF. Seyffart suggested that GenZ investors would react strongly and take legal action against the SEC.
Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024
It is worth noting that Grayscale Investments previously sued and won against the SEC when their application for a spot Bitcoin ETF was denied. Legal experts believe that the SEC has exhausted its arguments for rejection in court and is unlikely to repeat the same path.
Additionally, James Seyffart believes that if the SEC mistakenly denies a spot Bitcoin ETF, the Biden administration will intervene to rectify the situation.
BlackRock’s Assurance Adds to Growing Optimism
BlackRock, one of the largest asset management firms, remains optimistic about their spot Bitcoin ETF application. They anticipate receiving approval by next week, which has further boosted industry optimism.
Matthew Sigel from VanEck previously mentioned that BlackRock is well-prepared for the launch of the iShares Bitcoin Trust, with $2 billion ready to enter the market once approval is granted.
Experts believe that after putting applicants through rigorous processes, the SEC is unlikely to suddenly reject the spot Bitcoin ETF. Expectations are high for approval in the upcoming week.
Hot Take: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Anticipation Reaches All-Time High
The anticipation for spot Bitcoin ETF approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is at an all-time high. Analysts believe that there are limited reasons for the market regulator to reject the product at this time. The odds of rejection have decreased to 5%, indicating a high likelihood of approval. Furthermore, legal experts suggest that the SEC has exhausted its arguments against a spot Bitcoin ETF in court and is unlikely to repeat them. The Biden administration is also expected to intervene if a denial were to occur. With BlackRock’s assurance and optimistic outlook, expectations are growing for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the near future.
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