Speculating on Biden’s Impeachment: Ethereum’s Decentralized Polymarket Users Engage in Predictions

Speculating on Biden’s Impeachment: Ethereum’s Decentralized Polymarket Users Engage in Predictions


Polymarket Bettors Give Slim Odds for Biden’s Impeachment

Gamblers in both traditional and decentralized betting circles are placing bets on the possibility of President Joe Biden being impeached. This comes after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy initiated an inquiry into Biden’s alleged misconduct, including abuse of power and corruption related to his son Hunter Biden’s overseas business dealings. McCarthy stated that there have been serious and credible states against Biden.

One particular claim implies that Biden may have received funds from a Ukrainian energy firm during his time as vice president, while another alleges that a Chinese energy company transferred money to a Biden family associate. Although while impeachment requires evidence of treason, bribery, or other high crimes, no United States president has ever been impeached.

Betting on Polymarket

On Polymarket, one specific bet concentrates on whether Biden will be impeached by September 30, 2023, or December 31, 2023. The probability of impeachment by September 30 is incredibly low at 99.4% against it. For the latter date, the probability stands at 96% against impeachment. These predictions reflect the sentiment of gamblers on both traditional betting venues and decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket.

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Public Opinion and Gambling Sites

Prediction markets and gambling sites can serve as indicators of public opinion on upcoming events. In February 2023, the odds of Biden’s impeachment were likewise low according to presidentialelectionodds.net. Gambling.com’s statistics from September 11, 2023, suggest that bookies give Biden a 36.4% chance of winning the next election.

In late August, bettors on Polymarket predicted that former President Donald Trump would secure the Republican nomination for the upcoming election. This specific bet remains active, and Trump is as of now leading between Republican contenders.

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Hot Take: Slim Chances of Biden’s Impeachment

Based on betting trends and prediction markets, it seems unlikely that Joe Biden will be impeached. Regardless of states of misconduct and corruption, historical precedent and current probabilities suggest that the chances of impeachment are slim. Nonetheless, as with any political prediction, these odds may change over time. It will be interesting to see how public opinion and betting trends evolve in the coming months.

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