Bitcoin ETF Approval Still Pending
Bitcoin has seen a significant rally recently, with the hope that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be close to approving a spot ETF. The price of Bitcoin has increased by almost 40% in the past month. However, the approval process is complex, and analysts are uncertain about when a decision might be made.
“The SEC will not want to act as kingmaker given the scrutiny it will attract, and this will take a little more time,” said Tim Bevan, CEO of ETC Group. He predicted that January is the earliest possible timeline for approval.
Speculation about SEC Decision
There have been speculations about potential decisions from the SEC regarding applications from asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity. However, the regulator recently extended its decision timeline on the proposed ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF until at least Jan. 10.
Optimism grew earlier in the year after judges ruled that the SEC had to re-review a bid for a spot bitcoin ETF from Grayscale Investments. Bitcoin’s price surged, rising 115% over the past year to currently trade at $37,235 according to CoinGecko.
The SEC’s Role
Vivian Fang, a finance professor at Indiana University, emphasized that it’s up to the SEC to decide when and how they make any decisions regarding Bitcoin ETFs.
“It sure can wait until the final deadline, although I personally think it will likely make a decision this year,” Fang said. “At least this seems to be priced in by the recent crypto price movements – the market is heating up for near-term approvals of the spot bitcoin ETFs.”
Potential Window for Approvals
Analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence believe there is a significant chance that approvals could start coming in by early January, noting that a window has opened up until Nov. 17 for a potential greenlight.
Nathan Geraci, president of advisory firm The ETF Store, said it is possible that the SEC takes advantage of this short window to issue approval orders.
“Issuing 19b-4 approval orders during this window would help keep the SEC on the path towards batching-up all existing spot bitcoin ETF filings to launch at the same time,” Geraci said.
No Spot Bitcoin Fund Approval Yet
The SEC has not yet approved a spot bitcoin fund, although it has approved ETFs based on futures. The regulator didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from The Block.
Hot Take: Uncertainty Looms over Bitcoin ETF Approval
The uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin ETF approvals continues as analysts predict potential windows for approvals but remain unsure about when a decision might be made. The SEC’s role in this process is crucial, and stakeholders continue to watch closely for any updates regarding spot Bitcoin funds.
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