JPMorgan has outlined four potential global outlook scenarios, predicting a recession in the United States as the most likely outcome. The economists at the bank believe there is a 36% probability of a “boil the frog” recession, triggered by aggressive monetary tightening due to persistent inflation. They expect a synchronized global downturn in 2024. The second-most likely scenario, with a 32% probability, is a “slip-sliding away” recession in late 2023 or early 2024, caused by an ongoing credit crunch. The economists also assign a 23% probability of a Goldilocks soft landing, where the U.S. economy avoids a recession, and a 10% probability of a near-term recession in mid-2023.
There is a general expectation of a U.S. recession, with economists like Steve Hanke and Peter Schiff warning of an “ugly” and “massive” recession, respectively. However, Bank of America is preparing for a milder recession, while Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone predicts a “severe deflationary recession.” In contrast, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink does not anticipate a significant U.S. recession this year.
Continue reading on Bitcoin.com
By
By
By
By
By
By