The Future of Crypto Adoption: A Realistic Perspective
While early growth in both spaces has been eerily similar, don’t get too excited about crypto’s future.
Main Breakdowns:
- Crypto adoption is often compared to internet adoption, but the comparison may not be accurate.
- The internet is used for everything in our lives, while crypto is mostly seen as a speculative investment or a means of transferring value.
- Looking at the adoption of basic financial technologies, it is evident that it takes decades for people to embrace new technologies.
- Less than 50% of the world uses mobile banking 26 years after its debut, and only about a third of Americans actively invest in stocks.
- Crypto may struggle to reach 5 billion users by 2047, and a more conservative estimate is a range of 2 billion to 3 billion users.
Hot Take: Crypto’s growth trajectory may not be as exponential as some predict. It will face challenges in beating or joining the current way of doing things, and regulation can also hinder its adoption. A more cautious approach is needed to analyze crypto adoption, considering the slow pace of adoption seen in other technologies.
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