Intriguing Bitcoin Prediction: $1 Million Within Days to Weeks
Samson Mow, the CEO of JAN3, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin’s value could skyrocket to $1 million in just a matter of days or weeks. This forecast is not without reason, as Mow explains that Bitcoin’s unpredictable nature often leads to unexpected disruptions.
Bitcoin’s Unpredictability and “Max Pain”
Mow argues that Bitcoin’s unpredictability is its defining characteristic. This volatility could result in a rapid price increase that disrupts not only individual plans but entire economic systems. JAN3’s plan to onboard nation-states into the Bitcoin ecosystem would be greatly affected by such a sudden surge in price.
Impacts on Stock-to-Flow Model and Lightning Network
Mow also mentions that Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, commonly used to predict Bitcoin’s price, would break under these circumstances. Additionally, the Lightning Network, designed for faster and cheaper transactions, may become impractical if Bitcoin reaches $1 million. Transaction fees would no longer be “cheap,” rendering current lightning channels potentially useless.
The Effects on MicroStrategy and El Salvador
A sudden price increase to $1 million would have significant implications for entities like MicroStrategy and countries like El Salvador. MicroStrategy’s goal of owning 1% of the Bitcoin supply would be challenging to achieve despite their substantial investments. El Salvador would miss out on issuing Bitcoin bonds and building reserves at lower prices.
Skeptics and Psychological Impact
Mow humorously suggests that prominent economists and central bankers like Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell could lose their jobs as the financial world adapts to accommodate Bitcoin. Gold advocates like Peter Schiff would also face a challenging situation, especially with gold prices stagnating.
Missed Opportunity and Bitcoin’s Unpredictability
Mow highlights that a rapid ascent to $1 million would mean many people missed their chance to invest in Bitcoin. Earning Bitcoin through work would become the only viable option for most individuals. Factors like spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, nation-state adoption, quantitative easing, and the Veblen effect are not yet reflected in Bitcoin’s price.
Hot Take: Bitcoin’s Inherent Unpredictability and Disruptive Potential
Mow’s prediction may seem far-fetched to some, but it serves as a reminder of Bitcoin’s inherent unpredictability and its potential for disruption. Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan also made headlines with a similar forecast of a crisis leading to a hyperinflationary environment and a $1 million Bitcoin price.
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