A Potential Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Already Factored into Market, Says Coinbase Researcher
A researcher at Coinbase suggests that the impact of a potential regulatory approval for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US has already been “partially priced in” for Bitcoin. According to David Duong, head of institutional research at Coinbase, the performance divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins indicates that market participants are anticipating the approval of one or more BTC ETFs.
However, Duong believes that if a spot-based ETF is approved, Bitcoin may not experience as significant of a rally as traders expect because the highly anticipated event is already partially priced in. Additionally, he states that it might take some time for substantial inflows to materialize, drawing a comparison to the launch of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF in 2004.
Deadline for ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF Could Prompt SEC Decisions
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently delayed decisions on several spot BTC ETF applications, including BlackRock’s. However, the final deadline for reviewing one application, the ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF, is January 10th. Duong believes that this deadline could encourage the SEC to issue decisions on multiple applications before the end of the year.
He suggests that if there is no government shutdown, it is possible for the SEC to make a decision before the end of Q4 2023. Alternatively, they may choose to address these applications collectively in December to avoid sending mixed messages.
Hot Take: Market Already Pricing In Potential Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
A researcher at Coinbase suggests that market participants are already anticipating the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. This means that if an ETF is approved, Bitcoin may not experience as significant of a rally as traders expect because the event has already been partially priced in. Additionally, it may take some time for substantial inflows to materialize, similar to the launch of a gold ETF in the past. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently delayed decisions on several BTC ETF applications, but the deadline for one application could prompt them to issue decisions on multiple applications before the end of the year.
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