Trump’s Increased Chances Spark Crypto Market Surge
Following the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, crypto prediction market Polymarket has reported a surge in his chances of winning the presidential election. While traditional polls may suggest otherwise, the odds on platforms like Polymarket and PredictIt have shifted in response to the incident.
Crypto Market Reacts to Trump’s Rising Odds
Prediction markets like Polymarket serve as platforms where traders can exchange contracts based on uncertain future events. These contracts’ prices reflect the collective predictions of market participants, effectively representing odds. Polymarket’s prediction market indicates a significant increase in Trump’s chances, rising from 60% to 72% after the assassination attempt. Conversely, Biden’s odds have slightly increased to 18%, while Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds have dropped from 13% to 5%. Similarly, PredictIt reflects this shift, with Trump’s odds rising to 67% and Biden’s falling to 26%.
The reaction in the crypto market has been noticeable, with the prices of major cryptocurrencies rebounding recently. Trump’s assertion that he would be the “crypto president” if re-elected has also contributed to the rally in the crypto market.
Recovery Signs in the Crypto Industry
For example, Bitcoin has surged by 6%, exceeding $63,000 for the first time in three weeks after reaching a low of $53,500 on July 5th. Currently, the largest cryptocurrency on the market has recorded gains of 6% and over 13% in the 24-hour and seven-hour time frames. Additionally, crypto-related stocks like Coinbase Global, Marathon Digital Holdings, and Riot Blockchain have experienced upwards momentum, with gains of 10%, 7%, and 6%, respectively.
Meme coins, including those created as parodies of the former president, have also seen an increase. For instance, MAGA has risen over 45% in the seven-day period and 7% in the past 24 hours, reaching a trading price of $8.43. However, the token has experienced a 66% decrease in trading volume and a 53% drop from its all-time high of $17.5 in June 2024.
Impact on Trump’s Business Ventures
The shooting incident on Saturday indirectly affected Trump’s business ventures. Shares of Trump Media and Technology, the parent company of Truth Social, surged by 47% following the incident, potentially adding $1.8 billion to Trump’s total wealth. This suggests a growing investor interest in Trump-owned businesses post the assassination attempt.
Hot Take: Trump’s Odds and the Crypto Market
The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania has caused a significant shift in his chances of winning the presidential election, according to crypto prediction markets like Polymarket. This unexpected event has not only influenced the odds but also sparked a surge in the crypto market, with major cryptocurrencies rebounding and meme coins experiencing notable increases in value. As the situation unfolds, the intersection of politics and cryptocurrencies continues to captivate market participants and observers alike.
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