U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Odds Rise to 65%, Analysts Cite Blackrock Influence
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing several applications for spot bitcoin ETFs. Analysts from Bloomberg ETF, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, have increased their odds of approval for a spot bitcoin ETF to 65%. This is based on recent events and new information.
- The SEC’s approval of Coinbase’s Bitcoin exchange
- Grayscale’s attempt to minimize other filings
- The SEC’s loss in the Grayscale case
- Pressure from Blackrock and possibly Democrats
Seyffart speculates that the easiest path to approval would be simultaneous approval for all eight filers plus Grayscale, following a potential triumph for Grayscale over the SEC in federal court. This could lead to a surge of SEC approvals in the fourth quarter. However, it ultimately depends on how much SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is willing to fight.
Hot Take:
The increasing odds of a spot bitcoin ETF approval to 65% is a positive development for the crypto industry. If approved, it could open up new investment opportunities and increase mainstream adoption of bitcoin. However, it remains to be seen how the SEC will ultimately decide and whether any further obstacles will arise.
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