Was bitcoin’s latest surge just a last fling before sinking lower, or does it have the legs to continue on upwards?
Just a narrative pump?
Some analysts and commentators would have us believe that there just isn’t the market order flow for any sustained moves, and it must be said that volume is quite low, having been so since late March.
A short term relief rally to the upside?
Is everyone just FOMOing in because of all the new ETF filings which began with Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF application of just a week ago and then the subsequent Fidelity, Wisdom Tree, Invesco, and Valkyrie filings, and then the Wall Street-backed EDX Markets?
This is likely the case. Bitcoin and crypto haven’t had much to shout about for quite a while so the perceived positive news here does look to be responsible for the price action, and perhaps it’s just a matter of time before the ETF narrative starts to die down.
Also, could it be that the traditional institutions are coordinating with the SEC with a view to taking down the crypto businesses before providing their own solutions taken from the crypto innovations?
Bullish in the short term
Be this as it may, at least in the short term, bitcoin is still looking strong. After briefly touching $30,800 bitcoin looks as though it is forming a bull flag, although another touch of the flag bottom is probably needed. The 4-hour Stochastic RSI has reset to the bottom and we should see a cross up soon.
Ethereum is behaving in a similar way, and looks to be breaking out of its own bull flag already. In relation to BTC, ETH has been rather a laggard though, and has been steadily forming lower highs and lows from all the way back to September of 2022.
A bottom could now have been found given that ETH is currently sitting at the 0.618 Fibonacci level against its BTC pair. Also, with the ongoing ETH staking narrative helping to drastically reduce the market supply, perhaps this is the time for Ethereum to start to shine.
Many altcoins will die
As for the rest of the crypto market it does rather look as though the altcoins as a whole are not going to do their usual thing and rise en masse. Instead, a small group of alts, with strong use cases and narratives might be the only ones to make the big moves.
Things are changing in crypto, and previous cycles where just about anything might rocket skywards on a given day is likely not to happen any more. In the coming times the wheat is going to be sorted from the chaff.
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