The Essential Crypto News This Week – Macro Monday
Introduction
Welcome to the latest episode of Macro Mondays on Real Vision, where we break down the vital information you need to stay informed in the crypto world. This week, we dive into key trading topics, such as US retail numbers, construction trends, and the impact of weather on the economy. We also explore the real estate market, the German electricity consumption, and the UK CPI numbers. Additionally, we discuss Chinese copper trends, US dollar liquidity, and the impact on various equity sectors. Don’t miss out on the latest crypto insights and essential market updates.
US Retail Sales Trends
- US retail sales show weaker-than-expected results in May, with building materials surprising on the downside.
- Signs of weakness in the construction sector point to a potential economic cycle downturn.
- Weather-related factors may have contributed to the recent decline, but the June data will be a crucial test for construction activity.
Real Estate Market Analysis
- The real estate sector experiences extreme rent increases, driven by scarcities that are slowly diminishing.
- With higher completion rates and an increase in housing inventory, the US real estate market may be reaching a tipping point.
- Rate cuts in Sweden and Canada, along with the sensitivity to spot interest rates, can impact future real estate market trends.
German Electricity Consumption vs. Industrial Production
- Analyzing the linkage between electricity consumption and industrial production in Germany provides insights into the current economic status.
- Real-time data indicators like electricity consumption offer a more accurate reflection of economic activity than traditional indicators like PMI data.
- The reported economic decline in Germany may be contrary to the actual rebound seen in electricity consumption data.
US Dollar Liquidity Trends
- The US faces a potential QE-light scenario, focusing on managing liquidity levels to prevent hitting lower thresholds that could impact the overall economic stability.
- Dollar liquidity plays a crucial role in various equity sectors, indicating the sensitivity of sectors like information technology and consumer discretionary to liquidity additions.
- The trend in dollar liquidity has significant implications for the cryptocurrency market, influencing Bitcoin and Ethereum differently based on liquidity dynamics.
Crypto Portfolio Tracking and Trading Recommendations
- The live portfolio tracking system at Steno Research provides a snapshot of current trading ideas and performance.
- Each trade recommendation is evaluated individually to monitor performance, with a focus on expressing and tracking trading ideas rather than calculating an overall return.
- Trading recommendations in the portfolio, such as short positions in metals and long positions in currencies like the Mexican peso, aim to capitalize on market trends and emerging opportunities.
Conclusion
Stay tuned for the latest developments in the crypto market, including tracking trading recommendations and monitoring key trends in the global economy. Join us next week for more insights and analysis on Trump and Biden’s debate, the French election, and how these events impact the financial landscape. Subscribe to Real Vision for in-depth analysis and expert insights into the world of finance and business. Stay informed and stay ahead of the curve with Real Vision.
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