Bitcoin ETF Launch Leads to Decline in BTC Price
Following the recent launch of the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the value of Bitcoin has seen a decline after briefly reaching $49,000. Now, attention is focused on the short-term price trajectory of Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency facing the risk of losing its crucial $40,000 support level. There were concerns that Bitcoin might drop further after it fell below $41,000 on January 20.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Correlation with Halving Events
In an analysis posted on TradingView, crypto trading expert FieryTrading discussed the potential outlook for Bitcoin after the ETF hype. He identified a correlation between bear market bottoms and Bitcoin’s price during halving events. By analyzing historical data, FieryTrading highlighted a speculative pattern where Bitcoin’s value surged significantly during the second and third halvings. For example, during the second halving, there was a 300% increase from the bottom, and during the third halving, it was a 200% increase off the bottom. Based on this pattern, FieryTrading suggested that a move towards $31,000 for Bitcoin is plausible.
“So my assumption would be that the price on the 4th halving, the next one, would be 100% from the $15,500 bottom, so around $31,000. With BTC reversing after the ETF launch, a move towards $31,000 is not even that far-fetched since it functioned as a very important resistance for the majority of 2023 and therefore functions as a magnet,” he said.
Bitcoin Catalyst: Halving Event
With the ETF not meeting expectations in terms of Bitcoin’s price action, attention has shifted to other catalysts, particularly the upcoming halving event scheduled for April. There are expectations that the ETF will be complemented by the halving. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci previously stated that Bitcoin might trade at $170,000 by 2025, attributing the increase to a combination of the ETF and halving event.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $41,743 with daily losses of less than 1% and a weekly decline of over 2%. Technical analysis reveals bearish sentiments, with one-day gauges indicating a ‘neutral’ rating of 7, moving averages signaling a ‘sell’ sentiment of 9, and oscillators holding a ‘buy’ sentiment of 4. Investors are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to sustain gains above the $40,000 support zone.
Hot Take: Bitcoin Faces Uncertainty Amidst ETF Launch and Halving Event
The recent launch of the Bitcoin ETF has led to a decline in its price, with attention now focused on its short-term trajectory. FieryTrading’s analysis suggests a potential move towards $31,000 based on historical patterns and correlations with halving events. However, as the ETF did not meet expectations in terms of price action, other catalysts such as the upcoming halving event in April are being closely watched. Despite these uncertainties, Bitcoin’s overall performance has been noteworthy, attracting significant trading volume. Traders and investors are keeping a close eye on whether Bitcoin can maintain its gains above the crucial $40,000 support level.
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