Bitcoin Halving: A Long-Term Perspective
Bitwise, a crypto index fund management giant, suggests that the digital asset market tends to overlook the long-term impact of Bitcoin (BTC) halvings. According to Bitwise, historical data reveals interesting trends post halving events since 2012.
Historical Price Movements
After the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020:
- In the first month, BTC prices went up by 9%, dropped by 10%, and went up by 6%.
- However, in the first year post-halving:
- Bitcoin surged by 8,839% after 2012 halving,
- Increased by 285% after the 2016 event, and
- Saw a rise of 548% post the 2020 halving.
Trading Volume Insights
Bitwiseโs Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and senior crypto research analyst Juan Leon point out:
- Bitcoin spot trading volumes grew in the year following each halving event.
They also highlight how the market tends to:
- Price in the short-term halving impact,
- Underestimating the long-term impact, and
- Suggest long-term halving tendencies towards price appreciation.
Upcoming Halving and Current Price
Bitcoinโs next halving is scheduled for April 20th, as per NiceHash, a hash rate marketplace. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $61,486. It has experienced:
- More than a 3% drop in the past 24 hours, and
- Over a 12% decline in the past week.
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Hot Take: Leveraging Halving Trends
Understanding Bitcoinโs past halving trends can provide insights into potential future price movements. By examining historical data and market responses, crypto investors can better position themselves for long-term growth and capitalize on the upcoming halving event.
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