Bitcoin Options Expiry Sees Significant Volumes
A platform specializing in options data, Greeks.Live, has provided insights into the January 26 options data for Bitcoin (BTC). Approximately 94,000 Bitcoin options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.51, a Maxpain point of $41,000, and a notional value of $3.75 billion. In the case of ETH, 932,000 options are approaching expiry, showcasing a Put Call Ratio of 0.31, a Maxpain point of $2,300, and a notional value totaling $2.07 billion.
The cryptocurrency market has experienced weakness this week due to the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF. The ongoing volatility reduction is marked by declining major-term Implied Volatilities (IVs), and some short-term IVs dropping below the 40% threshold. The Put Call Ratio (PCR) has sharply fallen, indicating decreased bearish activity.
As more than 30% of options approach their expiration today, there is anticipation that the margin released during this period could impact IV and contribute to the return of Bitcoin’s option term structure.
Bitcoin Price Actions Ahead in 2024
The Bitcoin price has been moving downwards following the spot ETF approval, and analysts expect it to decline further to $35,000 and potentially even lower before the next bull run. However, there is bullish sentiment surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving scheduled around 2024, with analysts predicting a new bull run to start thereafter.
Despite positive sentiments, some market analysts have advised caution. Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone anticipates that Bitcoin is likely to underperform the stock market on a risk-adjusted basis in 2024, while gold may outperform. He emphasizes that market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve may be misplaced.
#Gold set to beat #Bitcoin in 2024 unless the stock market can keep going up.
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) January 25, 2024
Hot Take: Bitcoin Options Expiry and Price Outlook
The Bitcoin options expiry today has significant volumes, with both Bitcoin and ETH options approaching expiration. This could impact market dynamics and contribute to the return of Bitcoin’s option term structure.
Looking ahead in 2024, the Bitcoin price is expected to face further downside before a potential new bull run. While there is optimism surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving, caution is advised as some analysts believe Bitcoin may underperform the stock market on a risk-adjusted basis compared to gold.
Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve may also play a role in determining Bitcoin’s performance this year.
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