The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has surprised the market by announcing an early delay of ARK Invest’s and 21Shares’ Bitcoin spot ETF application. The decision, which was originally scheduled to be decided by November 11, has raised concerns about the approval of any ETFs this year. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, James Seyffart, expressed his surprise on Twitter, suggesting that this delay may impact other ETF filings as well. With several applications from major players like BlackRock, Bitwise, and VanEck scheduled for mid-October, the future of ETF approvals remains uncertain.
Potential Influences Behind the Decision
Seyffart speculated that a letter from both Republican and Democratic congressmen to SEC Chairman Gensler might have influenced the SEC’s decision. In their letter, the congressmen stressed the importance of approving spot Bitcoin ETFs immediately to enhance investor protection and provide transparent access to Bitcoin. They referenced the court decision in the Grayscale case against the SEC, urging the SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETPs that meet Congress’ requirements.
Odds of a Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval
Seyffart had previously predicted a 75% chance of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval in 2023, but he believes these odds may decrease due to the recent SEC delay. He emphasized that the outcome of the Grayscale GBTC court case remains a primary factor in determining these odds. Seyffart mentioned that more clarity on next steps regarding the GBTC court case should be available by October 13, which is when the SEC’s window to appeal Grayscale’s court victory closes.
Potential Impact of Government Shutdown
Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, highlighted that a potential government shutdown could further impact spot Bitcoin ETF decisions due in October. The US Senate recently passed a bipartisan initiative to avert the shutdown, but the outcome is still uncertain. The looming shutdown adds complexity to an already complicated regulatory landscape surrounding Bitcoin ETFs.
Hot Take: Uncertainty Surrounds Bitcoin Spot ETF Approvals
The recent SEC delay of ARK Invest’s and 21Shares’ Bitcoin spot ETF application has raised concerns about the approval of any ETFs this year. With several major applications scheduled for mid-October, including those from BlackRock and VanEck, the landscape of ETF approvals remains uncertain. Analysts speculate that the SEC’s decision may have been influenced by a letter from congressmen urging immediate approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, the outcome of the Grayscale GBTC court case continues to impact the odds of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval. The potential government shutdown further adds complexity to the regulatory environment. Overall, the future of Bitcoin spot ETF approvals remains uncertain.
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